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The latest National Journal Political Insiders Poll finds that on a scale of 0 to 10 -- with zero being no chance at all -- the average score Democratic insiders gave for chances of the health care bill passing was 7.9 and for GOP insiders was 6.5.
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A new Rasmussen Reports survey in Arizona finds Sen. John McCain (R) leading primary challenger J.D. Hayworth by just seven points, 48% to 41%.
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Sen. John Ensign (R-NV) "is in the crosshairs of a Department of Justice criminal investigation," KLAS-TV reports.
"The criminal probe stems from a romantic affair Ensign had with the wife of his key staffer and close friend, Doug Hampton, and what Ensign has done to help Hampton financially."
"Subpoenas have been issued to at least six Las Vegas businesses. The Justice Department came to Las Vegas to interview several prominent business and political figures in what appears to be a wide-ranging and deadly-serious criminal probe."
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The CBO projects President Obama's health care bill will cost $940 billion and cut the deficit by $130 billion over the next decade, The Hill reports.
The bill is more expensive than the House or Senate bills, "though the CBO said that the current bill, which builds off the Senate's bill with changes to it, would make larger reductions in the deficit."
"The release of the CBO score sets into motion a 72-hour endgame on health care that could mean a vote in the House on the package as early as Sunday morning."
Ezra Klein: "It moves the story from process to substance. How Congress will vote is not a...
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"Just when you thought things couldn't possibly get any weirder" in New York politics, the New York Daily News reports a poll call in the field "appeared to be testing the viability of former LG Betsy McCaughey as a statewide candidate for either governor or the US Senate."
However, it's not clear whether McCaughey is now registered as a Democrat or Republican.
McCaughey flamed out last fall in her public attempt to challenge Democratic health care reform efforts.
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President Obama told members of Congress last week that "the fate of his presidency" hinged on this week's health reform vote in the House, Politico reports.
Rep. Jose Serrano (D-NY): "We went in there already knowing his presidency would be weakened if this thing went down, but the president clearly reinforced the impression the presidency would be damaged by a loss... He was subtle, but that was the underlying theme of the meeting -- the importance of passing this for the health of the presidency."
As the article notes, "it's a little more drama than Democrats are used to getting from Obama."
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A new Field Poll in California finds Tom Campbell (R) leading Carly Fiorina (R), 28% to 22%, among likely Republican voters in the U.S. Senate primary, with Chuck DeVore (R) at 9%. However, 40% are still undecided.
In hypothetical match ups with Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) in the general election, Campbell leads Boxer, 44% to 43%, while Boxer leads Fiorina, 45% to 44%, and tops DeVore, 45% to 41%. Both findings are within the survey's margin of error.
Said pollster Mark DiCamillo: "Formerly, I would have said this is in the Democratic column, but I would say now it's got to be moved into the tossup column. There just seems to be a turning...
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An interesting Smart Politics analysis finds that Democrats currently hold 43 of the 50 least competitive House seats in the nation.
In fact, John Lewis (GA-5), Kendrick Meek (FL-17), and Richard Neal (MA-2) have not faced a Republican challenger since new district lines were drawn in 2002. Neal has not faced a GOP opponent since 1996.
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After Illinois set a modern record for low turnout in February's primary, Gov. Pat Quinn (D) signed legislation to move the date back to March, the Chicago Tribune reports.
"Holding the election so soon after the holidays and creating a compressed campaign season also is partly blamed for Democrats picking the unheralded but free spending Chicago pawnbroker Scott Lee Cohen as the party's lieutenant governor nominee. Cohen's candidacy imploded following troubling revelations about his personal life, and Quinn now finds himself searching for a running mate six weeks after the primary was supposed to have settled the issue."
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A new Quinnipiac poll in Connecticut finds "undecided" is the big leader in the Democratic and Republican primary race for governor.
Among Democrats, 44% of voters are undecided, while Ned Lamont (D) gets 28% and Dan Malloy (D) gets 18%.
On the Republican side, 50% are undecided, while Tom Foley (R) has 30% and no other candidate tops 4%.
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House Democratic leaders said the long-awaited CBO score of the reconciliation bill will not come out until tomorrow, "forcing an acknowledgement that a Saturday health care vote is likely off the table," The Hill reports.
"But leaders are still hoping for a score on Thursday, and are still preparing for a possible vote before the end of the weekend."
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A new Public Policy Polling survey in North Carolina finds Richard Burr (R) leading all three possible Democratic challengers to his re-election.
Burr leads Elaine Marshall (D), 41% to 36%, tops Cal Cunningham (D), 43% to 32%, and beats Kenneth Lewis (D), 43% to 32%.
"Because the candidates are pretty obscure at this point the best measure of Burr's standing right now may be how he fares against a generic Democratic candidate. He leads 41% to 39% there, indicating that this could be a highly competitive race once the Democrats have a nominee who has built up some name recognition."
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"Relentless attacks against al-Qaeda in the Pakistan tribal region appear to have driven Osama bin Laden and other top leaders deeper into hiding, leaving the organization rudderless and incapable of planning sophisticated operations," CIA director Leon Panetta said in an interview with the Washington Post.
"So profound is al-Qaeda's disarray that one of its lieutenants, in a recently intercepted message, pleaded to bin Laden to come to the group's rescue and provide some leadership."
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"The art of taking money from the few and votes from the many under the pretext of protecting the one from the other."
-- Sen. Matthew Quay (R-PA), quoted in Realigning America: Mckinley, Bryan, and the Remarkable Election of 1896 by R. Hal Williams.
Quay was a powerful Republican party boss in Pennsylvania from 1887 until his death in 1904.
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Former John Edwards aide Andrew Young, author of the bestselling tell-all The Politician, has "signed with Hollywood superagent Ari Emanuel and is looking forward to being portrayed in a movie," the Los Angeles Times reports.
Ari Emanuel is the brother of White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel.
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If you want a picture of yourself with Sarah Palin and Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN), it will cost you $10,000 per couple, according to a fundraising invitation obtained by the Huffington Post.
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For the first time, the Gallup daily tracking poll shows more people disapproving of President Obama's job performance than approving, 47% to 46%.
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Daily Beast: "Buried in the middle of Lisa DePaulo's extensive GQ interview with John Edwards mistress Rielle Hunter was an interesting tidbit: Edwards invited Hunter to his hotel room, and apparently had her in bed within an hour of meeting her on a Manhattan street corner. Hardly the behavior pattern of someone who had been faithful to his wife for 30 years. So the next logical questions: Does John Edwards have a Tiger Woods problem? Are there more mistresses out there?"
Former aide Andrew Young says he knows about "several women that he told me about."
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Rep. Dennis Kucinich's flip on the health care bill "is symbolic of a broader shift among liberals," Tom Jensen notes. "Last month 73% said they supported the plan with 19% opposed. Now 89% say they support the plan with only 3% opposed."
Ben Smith notes these numbers "would seem to vindicate the White House's fundamental approach, which was to take the left for granted as much as possible and focus on courting marginal members of the Senate... The base has fallen into line. And if Rahm was right all along that progressives, essentially, could be taken for granted, he's about to go from punching bag to hero in the eyes of many Democrats."
Unless,...
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Multiple sources in the House and Senate are telling TPM "to expect the Congressional Budget Office's score of the health care reform package to come out late today. Nothing official yet, but if the House is going to vote on the Senate bill Saturday, the CBO score basically needs to come today."
Meanwhile, Roll Call reports that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) said that "some" CBO numbers will be available for his members to consider when Senators convene for a special caucus this afternoon.
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"Whenever you get in a jam there are people who will throw you under the bus. Whenever you watch a movie or whenever you read a book about someone that's in terrible, in a difficult situation, there are always those who do that. They just don't expect you to get out from under the bus. And when you do, they should be forewarned."
-- New York Gov. David Paterson (D), in an interview with Don Imus, when asked if Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) threw him "under the bus" when she suggested he resign.
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Richard Cohen: "This is a week for the history books, one way or another. The participants understand that, which helps to explain the intensity of the procedural maneuverings. But some are disinclined to focus on the broad impact, if only because they are too anxious to consider the ramifications if their side fails."
"It's no coincidence that GOPers recently have raised other controversial internal issues such as earmark reforms and ethical challenges that create additional tensions among Dems. The GOP goal has been to maximize the pain leading to the health reform vote."
"A senior Dem leadership aide this week agreed that the stakes are high, and voiced confidence about victory. If he...
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Though Republicans hold a 46% to 43% advantage in the generic congressional ballot, a new Public Policy Polling survey finds the lead "can hardly be taken as mandate, given that 60% of voters disapprove of the Congressional GOP compared to just 23% who think it's doing a good job."
For comparison, the latest WSJ/NBC News poll shows Democrats with a three point edge in the generic ballot, 46% to 43%, as does Gallup, 47% to 44%.
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Though a new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll finds the country is divided on health care and President Obama, First Read notes that "there is one thing all Americans -- including majorities of Dems, Republicans, independents -- agree on: Congress is broken. In the poll, just 17% approve of Congress' job, while a whopping 77% disapprove. Given the choice, half of respondents say they would vote to defeat every single member of Congress, including their own representative. And asked which one or two phrases best described their feelings about Congress, the top four responses were all negative: only interested in staying in office (37%), too close to special interest groups (28%), too partisan (19%), and supporting pork projects and waste...
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We noted a few days ago that C-SPAN put its entire video archive online -- 160,000 hours of footage, all available free of charge. However, digging out some of the more memorable moments from our political history has only just begun.
Steve Kornacki: "For committed political dorks (like me), this is a potentially life-altering development. No more futile YouTube searches for clips from the 1990 Weld-Silber Massachusetts gubernatorial debate or from Tom Harkin's 1992 presidential withdrawal announcement. It's all here -- and the video and audio quality is (for the most part) remarkably good."
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